We hope our listeners had a good weekend!
“It is an unwritten law of current political journalism that conservative Republican Presidential candidates usually receive gentler treatment from the press than do liberal Democrats. Since most reporters are moderate or liberal Democrats themselves, they try to offset their natural biases by going out of their way to be fair to conservatives. No candidate ever had a more considerate press corps than Barry Goldwater in 1964, and four years later the campaign press gave every possible break to Richard Nixon. Reporters sense a social barrier between themselves and most conservative candidates; their relations are formal and meticulously polite.”
Crouse, Timothy (2013-06-26). The Boys on the Bus (Kindle Locations 5192-5196). Random House Publishing Group. Kindle Edition.
A bit late, but here we go – episode 7! Mike had dinner with Donald Trump (kinda). We also talked about how John Kasich is still losing to Marco Rubio, violence on the campaign trail and how the Supreme Court is now a political football. Plus, Mike threatens Ken!
The New York Times Delegate Simulator 9000 (or whatever it’s called) is here. We had to cut a bunch from this episode, and one of those things was an article that Ken recommended on what went wrong with Jeb Bush’s campaign. It’s here.
Mike is going to be at Mar-a-Lago tonight having dinner with Donald Trump, (NBD, right?) so we pushed today’s episode to tomorrow. Be sure to subscribe on iTunes so you won’t miss hearing about Mike’s evening or any of the other episodes from the Dirty Politics Podcast.
Just a real quick mini-sode to put something on the record – a crazy idea that I had early last week and I forgot to bring it up on Sunday, but as that episode was long anyway, I figured let’s just put it out here – If (when) Trump basically locks up the nomination this week, Obama will let the media have its headlines on Wednesday be about Clinton and Trump, and then on Thursday afternoon or Friday- he announces his nominee for the Supreme Court. Such a move would put tremendous pressure on the GOP establishment and the Senate leadership, as well as dominating the news cycle through the weekend round table shows.
If it’s Sunday, then it’s – wait, I think someone already uses that one. Anyway, this is Dirty Politics, and Ken and Mike talked about the Democratic and Republican races, including the Michigan results, and the upcoming contests in Florida and Ohio and others on March 15, which happens to be the Ides Of March.
The audio quality on this episode is a bit off, as we recorded it outside on the balcony of the Dirty Politics Studio.
The article Mike was referring to is here.
And for the second Dirty Politics Book Recommendation, Mike chose “One Day” by David Nichols. Pick it up at Amazon, your local bookseller, or the library.
The Vox article that Ken mentioned is here.
This episode was a lot of fun to record, and we’d like to know what you think. Email us at firstname.lastname@example.org, or follow us on Twitter @DirtyPolPod, and like us on Facebook at Facebook.com/DirtyPoliticsPod.
Ken and Mike sat down to compare, uh, notes, following this week’s interesting Super Tuesday returns, Thursday’s cage match between the Republican candidates, and Saturday’s results.
Nancy Reagan, 94, passed away today. The former First Lady campaigned against drug use by kids and teens, resulting in “very special episodes” well remembered by anyone who grew up in the 80’s.
The scene from
Nuremberg Orlando that Ken referenced can be seen here.
This Saturday several states are having primaries and caucuses, close on the heels of this past Tuesday’s “Super Tuesday” – leading many media outlets to dub today “Super Saturday”, because, hey, why not?
The name is stupid, but there are 5 states participating in some sort of contest today. There aren’t nearly as many delegates up for grabs as there was on March 1.
For the Democrats, there is a primary in Louisiana, and caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska. And on Sunday, there’s a caucus for Maine’s 25 delegates.
Louisiana – 51 delegates- Hillary Clinton CRUSHED Bernie Sanders across the South on Super Tuesday, and in those “winner take most” states where delegates are awarded proportionality, she reaped the benefits of her massive margin of victory over Sen. Sanders. Demographically, Clinton is getting more minority voters than Sanders, and that helps her in states with large populations of minority voters. Louisiana will follow this pattern, giving Clinton another 60%+ win, and a majority of the delegates.
Kansas -33 delegates – This will be closer. Although it seems like forever ago, Iowa was almost a tie between the two contenders. While Sanders didn’t perform up to expectations in Nevada, but his 10 point victory in Oklahoma, his win in Colorado, his victory in Minnesota, as well as his home state of Vermont and a near tie in neighboring Massachusetts have all proven one thing – Sanders does well in states that are, shall we say, monochromatic. Kansas’ population is almost 87% white. So does that mean I think Sanders will win? I don’t know. But I know it’ll be close, and that’s all Bernie needs to grab some delegates.
Nebraska – 25 delegates- See Kansas.
Maine – 25 delegates – On Sunday, for some reason, but still, see Kansas.
All told on the Democratic side, I think it’s going to be a decent weekend for Sanders, but these weekend contests are going to be overshadowed by the upcoming Michigan primary on Tuesday, and the Ohio and Florida primaries on March 15. And yeah, I know there are a few other states here and there on those dates, but really – who cares? So long as Clinton keeps winning where it counts, her delegate counts will go up. She learned a lesson in 2008 when she lost to Barack Obama’s delegate campaign, and she’s not making the same mistake twice.
For the Republicans, there will be primaries in Louisiana as well, and in Puerto Rico. Kentucky, Kansas, and Maine hold caucuses. With Ben Carson officially ending his campaign, and John Kasich’s strong performance in Thursday night’s
dick measuring contest debate, it’s now a sort of a four man race.
There is so much insanity going on right now with the GOP, that I’m just going to run through this real quick:
Louisiana – 46 delegates – Trump is going to win here, again with a plurality of the vote. So long as he keeps splitting these winner take most states, he’s fine. He’s focusing on winning Florida away from Rubio on March 15 anyway. Cruz will be second, and Rubio and Kasich might end up with the same number of delegates.
Kentucky – 46 delegates – Trump. Then Rubio. Cruz will take third and be happy he can get any Carson voters without having to lie to them. And then Kasich.
Kansas– 40 delegates – Trump again, with Cruz close behind. Rubio and Kasich do end up with the same number of delegates.
Maine – 23 delegates – Trump, followed by Trump, and then Trump.
Puerto Rico – 23 delegates – Rubio. I’m not sold on Trump’s “Hispanics love me” assertion, plus with the island’s debt crisis, I don’t think voters are feeling adventurous. Cruz and Kasich will be also rans.
Mike’s a busy guy, but he texted me what he thought would happen –
“For the Republicans, there is no question for first place. The only question I have is if Kasich will get a bump from a strong performance in the last debate that was watched by 17 million people. I think Rubio is damaged but will get second in Maine (and Michigan.) Otherwise Cruz in the strong evangelical states like Kansas. Rubio has a chance in Puerto Rico.”
Then he went off on a rant about Hillary and San Quentin, David Petraeus and silver spoons. I’m not sure, but after he calmed down, he said that Clinton will take all but Maine.
We record Episode 5 tomorrow! Remember to enjoy your return watching responsibly.
We talked all about Super Tuesday on Episode 4, but if you’re pressed for time and watching the returns like we are, here’s the guys’ picks for who walks away with delegates tonight:
|Republican||Ken 1||Ken 2||Mike 1||Mike 2|