Not-So-Super Saturday Predictions

This Saturday several states are having primaries and caucuses, close on the heels of this past Tuesday’s “Super Tuesday” – leading many media outlets to dub today “Super Saturday”, because, hey, why not?

The name is stupid, but there are 5 states participating in some sort of contest today. There aren’t nearly as many delegates up for grabs as there was on March 1.

For the Democrats, there is a primary in Louisiana, and caucuses in Kansas and Nebraska. And on Sunday, there’s a caucus for Maine’s 25 delegates.

Louisiana – 51 delegates- Hillary Clinton CRUSHED Bernie Sanders across the South on Super Tuesday, and in those “winner take most” states where delegates are awarded proportionality, she reaped the benefits of her massive margin of victory over Sen. Sanders. Demographically, Clinton is getting more minority voters than Sanders, and that helps her in states with large populations of minority voters. Louisiana will follow this pattern, giving Clinton another 60%+ win, and a majority of the delegates.

Kansas -33 delegates – This will be closer. Although it seems like forever ago, Iowa was almost a tie between the two contenders. While Sanders didn’t perform up to expectations in Nevada, but his 10 point victory in Oklahoma, his win in Colorado, his victory in Minnesota, as well as his home state of Vermont and a near tie in neighboring Massachusetts have all proven one thing – Sanders does well in states that are, shall we say, monochromatic. Kansas’ population is almost 87% white. So does that mean I think Sanders will win? I don’t know. But I know it’ll be close, and that’s all Bernie needs to grab some delegates.

Nebraska – 25 delegates- See Kansas.

Maine – 25 delegates – On Sunday, for some reason, but still, see Kansas.

All told on the Democratic side, I think it’s going to be a decent weekend for Sanders, but these weekend contests are going to be overshadowed by the upcoming Michigan primary on Tuesday, and the Ohio and Florida primaries on March 15. And yeah, I know there are a few other states here and there on those dates, but really – who cares? So long as Clinton keeps winning where it counts, her delegate counts will go up. She learned a lesson in 2008 when she lost to Barack Obama’s delegate campaign, and she’s not making the same mistake twice.

For the Republicans, there will be primaries in Louisiana as well, and in Puerto Rico. Kentucky, Kansas, and Maine hold caucuses. With Ben Carson officially ending his campaign, and John Kasich’s strong performance in Thursday night’s dick measuring contest debate, it’s now a sort of a four man race.

There is so much insanity going on right now with the GOP, that I’m just going to run through this real quick:

Louisiana – 46 delegates – Trump is going to win here, again with a plurality of the vote. So long as he keeps splitting these winner take most states, he’s fine. He’s focusing on winning Florida away from Rubio on March 15 anyway. Cruz will be second, and Rubio and Kasich might end up with the same number of delegates.

Kentucky – 46 delegates – Trump. Then Rubio. Cruz will take third and be happy he can get any Carson voters without having to lie to them. And then Kasich.

Kansas– 40 delegates – Trump again, with Cruz close behind. Rubio and Kasich do end up with the same number of delegates.

Maine – 23 delegates – Trump, followed by Trump, and then Trump.

Puerto Rico – 23 delegates – Rubio. I’m not sold on Trump’s “Hispanics love me” assertion, plus with the island’s debt crisis, I don’t think voters are feeling adventurous. Cruz and Kasich will be also rans.

Mike’s a busy guy, but he texted me what he thought would happen –

“For the Republicans, there is no question for first place.  The only question I have is if Kasich will get a bump from a strong performance in the last debate that was watched by 17 million people. I think Rubio is damaged but will get second in Maine (and Michigan.)  Otherwise Cruz in the strong evangelical states like Kansas. Rubio has a chance in Puerto Rico.”

Then he went off on a rant about Hillary and San Quentin, David Petraeus and silver spoons. I’m not sure, but after he calmed down, he said that Clinton will take all but Maine.

We record Episode 5 tomorrow! Remember to enjoy your return watching responsibly.

 

One thought on “Not-So-Super Saturday Predictions

  1. Michael O'Rourke says:

    Okay Ken, I guess you didn’t get my text in time to know what was going to happen in the Republican contests. Of course, I picked Cruz in Maine and in Kansas and Donald Trump in everything else. I wondered how well Kasich would do after a strong debate performance, and I also stated that Rubio is damaged. His campaign has imploded. He has hurt himself by thinking that he can stand toe to toe with Donald Trump. The establishment continues to be the looser in these contests. They pick Jeb first and he couldn’t last past South Carolina. They picked Rubio and he won’t last past Florida on March 15th. They just don’t seem to understand what is happening in the election and continue to strategize from a strange place. The message they need to hear is get out of the way. The people are in charge.

    For the Democrats I missed two because Bernie actually won against HIllary in Nebraska and Kansas. I thought he was dead, but still moving.

    Like

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